2015/6/26

My view to Industry 4.0






Industry 4.0 is a hot topic recently in Asia following latest China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-05/19/c_134252230.htm). Germany starts this idea to retain its manufacturing leading position by applying information technology further in manufacturing. It is not only simply to “automate” manufacturing, but add the secret ingredient, intelligence, into manufacturing.

Industry 3.0 includes Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) and enterprise business applications such as ERP, CRM, SRM and SCM. Following the rapid development and wide use of computers, enterprise is able to enjoy the operation efficiency improvement, quality management, cost control…with data from shop floor, enterprise and even across enterprises. Early 2000, SCM was the hype at that time and enterprises were talking about collaboration, data exchange, supply chain visibility. Companies like Wal-Mart, Dell grew rapidly because of adaption of SCM in their business models. OBMs from US, Europe could offload capital-intensive manufacturing to Asia, Taiwan, China and south Asia by integrating supply chain information through business applications. On the other hand, manufacturing in US, Europe lost the competitorion edge because of cost, and German thinks about how to move manufacturing back to Europe. Furthermore, Industry 4.0 not only aims to improve operational efficiency, reduce cost, but also energy usage (consume energy, material more efficiently and intelligent), operation safety (adapt automation, robots with self-detect intelligence in hazardous environment or operations).

I would say that Industry 4.0 is more like a strategic framework about how to get manufacturing in Europe as competitive as Asia. Industry 4.0 is built upon few key technology inventions: internet of things, cloud and big data.

Internet of Things
In the age of Industry 3.0, shop floor automation is limited to the technology to interact with SCADA, PLC…(Level 1 and Level 2 from ISA-95 standard). MES (manufacturing execution system) needs to develop communication with Level 1/2 devices which requires vast effort. Only industries of semiconductor, TFT-LCD…are able to enter “full automation” because of standardized protocol defined by SEMI (semiconductor equipment and material international). However, IoT is going to make the change. With IoT technology, MES could communicate with Level 1/2 much easier, which could close the automation gap quickly.

Cloud
Using cloud technology, information is easier to be shared and accessed by interested parties. Cloud enables further collaboration among supply chain partners with low set up cost comparing with data exchange approaches used in Industry 3.0 age which might be only available for large enterprises. With Cloud, the small/mid size companies could hook up to the platform to enjoy the benefit with very low cost/effort and faster and this could enable global visibility across the supply chain.

Big Data
This is the jewel in the crown. IoT and Cloud bring the mass data (big data) from sensors, PLC…and analytics is applied to extract intelligence from these data. For example, production planners could use optimization models to analyze material and/or capacity constraints and derive next best actions to cope with these constraints. Another example is to analyze sales history, inventory levels across the supply chain and decide how much to be produced, what to be produced. And the material purchase orders could automatically triggered and sent to suppliers based on shop floor production schedule.

Another key point of Industry 4.0 is to de-centrailize decisions to shop floor,“execution autonomy”. Comparing with Industry 3.0 where data are integrated, analyzed centrally and decisions are sent to shop floor for execution. Execution autonomy means an event in shop floor triggers analytics and decision is made locally to respond to the specific event. Therefore, there is some “analytics” to support execution which does not require sending data back, analyzing, sending decisions to shop floor, shop floor can respond faster and even without human involvement.

Leveraging these three key technologies, concept of Industry 4.0 can be realized and implemented. But is it so easy to be “Industry 4.0” simply adapting these three technologies? The answer is obviously “No”.

Because of many enterprise puts their focus on business applications, ERP, CRM, SRM, SCM in Industry 3.0 age, they turn their heads to execution automation, sensors, SCADA, robots, “factory automation” per se. Some hardware vendors (such as industrial computers, sensor makers, robot vendors) promote their products by claiming to enable Industry 4.0. Even with some level of analytics on top of factory automation, it reaches only “smart factory” not completely Industry 4.0.

We think the key to Industry 4.0 is IT/OT integration (http://www.gartner.com/it-glossary/it-ot-integration). IT (information technology) means all business applications from Industry 3.0 (ERP, CRM, SRM, SCM) which facilitates enterprise business operations internally and externally. OT (operation technology), no the other hand, includes SCADA, PLC, MES… related to manufacturing execution. Without IT/OT integration, enterprise cannot benefit from Industry 4.0 transformation.

Some enterprises have highly automated factories which rely on very few operators to keep factories working after “automating the factory”. However, customers’ orders are not directly linked to production. Planners need to work on Excel spreadsheets or adapt Advanced Planning Solution to come up with master production schedule (MPS) based on customer orders/demands then release to factories for production. Here is the gap between IT and OT, and enterprise is not really “Industry 4.0”.

To better understanding of the concept of IT/OT integration, let’s take the example of BMW Z4 manufacturing. National Geography produced a film to introduce the making of BMW Z4. Consumers are able to select any color of leather seats and body color in the dealer site. The sales order (demand signal) will be sent to the factory and factory schedules the production based on material and capacity availability. With BOM (bill of materials) explosion, request for seats of specific color will be sent to suppliers with the time of request (when the production reaches the stage of seat assembly). Along the engine assembly, body painting, assembly, requirement of seat will be updated to the seat supplier to synchronize the production of seats/car. In this example, IT (order configuration, response, supplier collaboration) is fully integrated with OT (shop floor execution status/schedule) so that BMW can provide high customer service to its consumers.

Many enterprises ask the question: “How can I know if I am already Industry 4.0?” or “How is my maturity of Industry 4.0?” This is not an easy answer, nor standard one. We think Industry 4.0 is a strategic framework but there is no clear stick yard yet.

With Industry 4.0, enterprise can not only improve current operations but also has the possibility to innovate new business models. By applying Industry 4.0, it can make some impossible become possible, and this could introduce new service models, new business approaches.

IoT, Cloud, Big Data alone have been the source of business model innovation. For example, Trane changes their business model by charging their clients with operational hours of air conditioners. It analyzes data of the equipment availability and keeps to maintain high service level to be profitable. Another example is Royce Rolls charges its client by operational hours of aircraft engines instead of selling engines. (http://bluecanyonpartners.com/taking-flight-how-data-is-being-used-to-create-new-business-models-and-drive-profitable-growth/) With Industry 4.0 of integrating three elements, enterprises are able to develop more innovative models.

After framing new business models, enterprise can then identity the gap between as-is state and to-be state: does factory need to be 100% fully automated? What kind of data should be collected? via what kind of sensors? What intelligence needs to be extracted to support business model? How to link customer service to manufacturing shop floor? Not only CIO, but CEO, COO, CFO all need to think about this to achieve desired state. The most interesting part of Industry 4.0 is to bring customer requirement directly into manufacturing execution and promise back to the customer, it requires integration and collaboration inside and outside enterprise. Without seeing the big picture, enterprise will not receive the full benefit of Industry 4.0.

Some colleagues ask me: “If industry 4.0 is just another bubble?” I will say, We believe there will be a long journey ahead for Industry 4.0. And the journey is full of uncertainty, but also all kinds of potential and possibility.

2015/6/4

Computex 2015 Taipei 高峰論壇 「雲端跨界‧智慧物聯」-軟硬整合關鍵下一步



昨天參加了今年Computex Taipei的高峰論壇,聽施振榮等幾位業界高階主管談物聯網 (Internet of Things, IoT),在場的聽眾們大概都是期待他們幾位提出幾個明確的方向,讓台灣高科技產業能夠有所依歸。如果是想聽到這樣「簡單的答案」,那應該是失望的;但是如果是由「了解趨勢與方向」出發,個人覺得還是很有收穫的。

第一,物聯網時代的新理念

施振榮大聲疾呼他所倡議的「王道哲學」,也就是「永續經營」、「為人類創造價值」、「利益平衡」。說起來好像有點玄,但這與近來流行的一個名詞,「B型企業」,我認為是不謀而合的。施振榮唾棄美式企業「贏者全拿」 (winner takes all)的思維,他認為東方王道精神才是未來的主流思想。

因為物聯網所帶來的革命會產生zero margin cost,因此未來競爭不再是「零和」,而在於如何創造更多價值 (create value)。透過新的科技,將可以為消費者創造更多價值,但是未必相對的收取更多的費用,甚至還是持續「免費」。因此過去大家爭取自身利益最大化的「零和」模式將不再存在,因為原來就是「零」。

第二,未來高科技產業必須轉型的方向

施振榮開宗明義提出台灣高科技應該由「硬體」思維轉型到「硬體」+ 「軟體」 + 「服務」,才能走出現在的低潮。

這個想法跟我的觀察一致,過去台灣善於 「cost down」,接單然後想辦法透過經濟規模降低製造成本來賺取利潤,但是國外品牌則是善於 「create value」,如Apple打造整個ecosystem,同時提供硬體、軟體與服務,提高消費者黏著度,提供更多價值。台灣目前還是期待某品牌能夠推出一個「device」橫掃千軍,然後台灣可以接到代工的訂單。

但是目前物聯網的發展都是以某個應用情境 (user scenario)為主,為了要呈現這樣的應用情境,除了硬體外,都必須搭配相關的軟體來提供對應的服務;而其中硬體勢必要能夠非常低成本、可靠,但是又必須要與軟體相互搭配 (software-defined hardware),因此台灣高科技對於這一點是不能夠再以過去的思維來操作。

第三,積極投入、創業精神、業務模式

ARM的副總裁Ian Drew,提到目前物聯網給了學生、年輕人、創業家許許多多的機會;施振榮也說,物聯網是給年輕人的機會,而不應該是由他這樣70多歲的人在推,因為他沒有心力與體力了。聯發科的行銷長也提到當他們提供年輕學生這些科技時,他們可以發揮創意、設計出很多令人驚艷的應用。

因為物聯網這些機會,基於過去電子製造的經驗與環境,台灣其實有許多的機會。教育、創投等可以積極推動創業,讓年輕一代積極投入這些運用,為台灣開創一個新的局面。而現在就像70年代電腦興起一樣,百家爭鳴,有著許許多多的機會,對於年輕一代正是大好機會。如果還是期待政府有所作為,或是僅想進去一個企業當個朝九晚五的上班族,那台灣的未來堪慮。

但是不可諱言的是,目前物聯網運用的商業模式仍待開發、創造。在zero margin cost的情境下,已經沒有辦法像過去那麼直接的透過買賣軟、硬體來收取費用。Google提供很多有趣的服務,而且是免費的服務,他們沒有對消費者收取費用,但是藉由對於消費者一些分析來對廣告商收取費用。諸如此類的商業模式創新將成為物聯網時代各家企業或新創團隊最大的挑戰,也是成功的關鍵。


物聯網將在許多面向帶來革命,或許不是現在或是幾年內,但是我認為這是一個必然。在工業上會帶來革命 (工業4.0)、在金融業會帶來革命 (bank 3.0)、在智慧城市、智慧家庭、零售...等等都會慢慢的改變。台灣將在這一波浪潮下走到哪裡?那就看大家先在心態上怎麼調整了。

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